The UK’s berry industry could be “crushed” because of a lack of EU workers post Brexit, according to the former British Summer Fruits (BSF) chairman, who represented 97 percent of the UK berry industry.
Ex BSF chairman Laurence Olins wrote the government needs a global employment scheme by September 2018 at “the very latest” to allow the industry to recruit for the 2019 season.
However, as of April 2018, there is no such scheme in place, and BSF’s new chairman, Nick Marston, says the UK government has given no firm sign of introducing one. “There is already a significant shortage of staff and the concern is that will be worse [next year],” he told WikiTribune.
Starting in 1945, the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) was the UK’s longest running migration scheme (academic study) and allowed European migrants to fill seasonal jobs, such as picking berries and other farming work. However, the scheme stopped pre-Brexit in 2013, despite warnings it would lead to a labor shortage several years later from the government’s own Migration Advisory Committee, as well as farming organizations.
Then the UK voted for Brexit, leaving its farmers’ futures, as well as migrants’ ability to come work on their farms, more uncertain. While the UK remains in the European Union (EU) until the end of March 2019 EU citizens can come to the UK freely but once the UK leaves what happens next is all up for negotiation.
With more than 98 percent of the UK’s 80,000 seasonal workforce coming from the EU, British horticulture relies on EU free movement for workers (Financial Times). And it’s not only horticulture, with around 69 percent of the staff working on UK meat plant floors coming from the EU27 countries (between 2007–2013 the EU had 27 members), according to the British Meat Processors Association. It represents about 80 percent of meat processed in the UK.
Before the UK has even left the EU, the NFU’s labor providers survey reported there was an average 11 percent shortfall in seasonal workers for horticultural production in 2017.
Prior to the EU referendum the UK was a very attractive place for seasonal workers, NFU Horticultural Board chair, Ali Capper, told WikiTribune.
However, she says there’s been a drop in the number of EU workers coming to the UK due to the decline in the pound sterling since the UK voted to leave the EU (The Guardian), workers no longer feeling valued, and improving economies in the rest of Europe.
Capper’s claims are backed up by a BSF report which says a UK parliament committee was told that Romanian workers were increasingly turning down UK work offers because they no longer felt welcome. The level of hate crimes reported one month after the EU referendum was 41 percent higher than the same month from the previous year, with most (79 percent) of these motivated by race hate.
“I made a mistake of allowing one of my long-standing members of staff from Poland to be interviewed by a couple of the national media. And he had some very unpleasant phone calls afterwards,” Capper says.
On Capper’s own farm, most of her 20 Polish workers want to return for more work. However, because Brexit negotiations are unsettled she can’t even guarantee they can; this lack of confidence means growers are already disinvesting in the UK.
The electorate “didn’t vote against immigration … they voted for control of immigration,” Capper says.
Why should the UK consumer care?
The BSF’s chairman Nick Marston says berry prices increasing is “absolutely inevitable” if there is a shortage of labor. “A punnet that costs £2 today will be £3 post-Brexit, if there is no scheme in place.”
Price hikes wouldn’t be limited to fruit and vegetable produce. CEO of the British Meat Processors Association, Nick Allen, told WikiTribune that Brexit could lead to more farmers going out of business. If this happens retailers will just import from somewhere else and the cost of meat, which has the highest WTO [World Trade Organization] tariffs, would go up “dramatically”, he says.
Even under a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU, as well as a WTO scenario, UK food prices would rise, according to the NFU’s 2016 report.
If no deal is struck with the EU meat imported and exported between it and the UK would be subject to WTO rules, meaning tariffs of around 50 percent (Internal Market and Consumer Protection report).
Allen wonders if the government will see food go short and expensive, or just “quietly turn a blind eye” to meat coming in with lower standards. “Essentially we’d be exporting our welfare concerns, sort of shutting our eyes to it really … An animal is an animal, it shouldn’t matter where in the world it is.”
What about new FTA opportunities? About 80 percent of the UK’s agricultural exports go to the EU, according to a government report, and almost all of the UK’s trade is with countries with which the EU has already negotiated an FTA (government report).
Why not fill the jobs with British people?
The UK’s employment rate is the highest it has been since 1975, according to the UK’s ONS. More than 75 percent of the population, or 32 million people, were in work between December 2017 and April 2018 and unemployment stood at 4.2 percent (economists usually estimate full employment at around 4 percent). So there is not a big cohort looking for seasonal work.
The BMPA’s Nick Allen says it’s a similar situation for the UK’s meat industry. “A lot of the areas where our [meat] plants are have got 2 percent unemployment, while even most economists would say 5 percent unemployment is pretty much full employment.”
For every 10 British employees who come to work in an abattoir Allen says only one will stay. According to a BMPA report, many meat processors undertake recruitment drives via local job centers or school career programs with very little success. “Few will turn up as agreed, very few will agree to start work and UK nationals failing to complete even a week’s work are depressingly familiar,” the report says. It also says that since Brexit, Eville and Jones, which provides most of the official veterinarians in abattoirs, has had to advertise for the first time, which is concerning as over 90 percent of UK official vets are from the EU27 countries.
Is automation an option?
Allen says a lot of its members are looking at mechanization, but that is not a complete solution. “Pigs in blankets – little sausages wrapped in bacon – you try doing that with a machine.”
In the soft fruit industry, robotic picking is not an option for fruits such as raspberries, blackberries and blueberries, according to a BSF report. It says “extensive use on a commercial scale seems unlikely before 2020″ which would be too late, with the UK leaving the EU in 2019.
The CEO of the British Growers Association, Jack Ward, doesn’t think the shortfall in agricultural jobs can be replaced by automation soon. “We’re probably looking at a five to 10 year horizon before we get commercially viable options,” he says.
Will SAWS happen?
BSF’s Nick Marston says the UK’s fruit industry will already be short of labor in 2018.
“Until I hear something positive from number 10 Downing Street and the Home Office, who are the people who are the arbiters of this, I’m suffering from a fairly severe lack of confidence.
“If no scheme is put in place, the berry industry, effectively, will cease to exist.”
And the UK’s meat industry isn’t seasonal, so even if a SAW scheme or a similar one is reinstated, this wouldn’t fully solve the problem.