Talk for Article "Lula defies judge’s order, says he won’t surrender to police"

Talk about this Article

  1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

    I agree with Eduardo that there are too many things for just one story. We should probably split it into others. If I may suggest, we could create a separate story to cover the possibility of judicial overreach in Lula’s trial as a separate story, distinct from social, political and economic consequences of Lula running for office or not running.
    I admit that it is of my personal interest to understand the recent trial from a technical viewpoint, and that to most Brazilians it is the exact opposite: his being guilty or innocent is never discussed technically or in depth; it is already decided by each person according to their political views. From my view point it seems that the current polarization makes it hard to trust most Brazilian analysts on the matter, but we should do our best anyway. Maybe reaching experts and moderating a debate between them is the best option? Is this option even available?

    1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

      Hi Marcelo, since you suggested this great angle, would you like to take point on writing this story?

      You could reach out to a few experts, in and out of Brazil, and ask them directly. Let me know if this is something you’d be interested in doing.

      1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

        Marcelo, rather than starting a whole new story, what do you think of the idea of adding a section to the existing one about whether the case against Lula constitutes judicial overreach? You could interview a couple of legal experts and add a bit of background about Lava Jato – maybe 300-400 words in total?

        1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

          As you can see I haven’t had the time to even start something. However, after reading https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2018/04/18/O-que-%C3%A9-%E2%80%98ato-de-of%C3%ADcio-indeterminado%E2%80%99-usado-em-acusa%C3%A7%C3%B5es-de-corrup%C3%A7%C3%A3o and other articles I believe we can say there is real danger of judicial overreach. I’d really like someone else to provide an opposite point of view, and it would be wonderful to have a lawyer or someone with knowledge of brazilian Law, so I’ll start by listing the things that I can see separated by possibly illegal or innovative judicial understandings from legal but strange/awkward actions:

          *Possibly illegal or innovative judicial understandings*
          – The “ato de ofício indeterminado”: is it an aberration or is it sound? What are its consequences?
          – Sérgio Moro admits in his sentence to not finding a well defined action (an “ato de ofício”) committed by Lula to favor OAS. The article from Nexo Jornal does a good job of explaining how strange this is, but does emphasize that some from the Supreme Court understand that this is actually possible. It seems, however, that this is a very controversial topic in the judicial community. On page 196 In the sentence on can even see Moro citing US Federal Court cases to justify this (is this even legal?) and then elaborate some more to justify this.
          – At one point Moro had set up recordings of all of Lula’s lawyers phones and even _leaked the audio to the media_ when it was clear that the president at the time, Dilma, was telling Lula that he could become one of her Ministers if he needed it (if Lula became Minister he would by law only be judged by the Supreme Court, effectively escaping Moro). On the next day this leak caused a lot of turmoil and political action, and at one point a Supreme Court Judge stopped Lula from actually becoming Minister. In fact, parts of the audio were recorded after Moro had removed the recording order. https://www.nexojornal.com.br/expresso/2016/07/19/Por-que-os-%C3%A1udios-de-Lula-viraram-um-dos-epis%C3%B3dios-mais-controversos-da-Lava-Jato
          – Moro had to justify himself on recording Lula’s lawyers’ phones, and said that he thought it was the phone of only one lawyer, which was under investigation. Moro accuses Lula’s lawyers of changing phone numbers in the registry in order to lead judicial authorities into errors on purpose. It seems, however, that the telephone company warned Moro two times of what was actually being recorded (https://www.conjur.com.br/2016-mar-31/operadora-informou-juiz-sergio-moro-grampo-escritorio). http://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2016/04/moro-nega-ter-mandado-grampear-telefone-de-escritorio-que-defende-lula.html

          *Strange/awkward actions*
          – The time it took to judge is certainly remarkable (it was extremely fast). The fact that it ended on an election year and that Lula was the #1 candidate in every poll adds to the complaints of a political trial. One could say, however, that deciding this as early as possible is better for parties and people to think about their next actions with more time.
          – Lula’s lawyers insisted for a good part of the trial that the Triplex (the apartament which was supposedly given to Lula as a form of bribery) was not formally under his possession, and so that this would mean that the trial is very political. This is very strange given that the charges against him included “property hiding” (I don’t know what this is called in english), leading me to believe that Lula’s defense were insisting very early on that this was a political trial based on something that makes no sense.

          There is much more to this trial, but I don’t have the time to keep on adding things. Maybe others can add more things and/or complement the ones I’ve added? I’d really like others to chime in before we write something officially on the matter.

          * The sentence can be found at https://abrilveja.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/sentenc3a7a-lula.pdf

  2. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

    A good point to touch upon is to talk about what PT and its allies can do to avoid Lula going to jail. Secondly, there are people who say that Lula put himself as a candidate for this election to try to avoid being jailed, since that would make him a kind of martyr.

    1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

      Hey Renato. I think your first point would be a great addition to the current story. What do you think of the following idea: try to interview a few politicians from PT & allied parties, or failing that, a couple of legal experts and political analysts in the next couple of weeks about what strategies/arguments they might deploy to try to help Lula avoid prison?

      1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

        I think that it would be great to interview PT, PCdoB, PSOL, etc, but most probably they won’t be cooperative. As to interviewing the other people, it would be great also, but you got to be sure who you choose, or people will easily say the article will be biased.

        1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

          Hey Renato. What I meant was: would you like to give it a go?

          I don’t see why asking experts about current and/or potential political and legal strategies Lula and his team might deploy to avoid prison time would be biased. However, I wouldn’t focus on whether Lula is running to avoid jail time as that could lead to people giving their opinion in base of their political beliefs.

          Let me know if this works for you 🙂

          1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

            Well, I said it could be biased, depending on whom you interview, because Brazil is in a very polarized time, so if you say something in favor of Lula, you automatically support him and are a socialist. And if you criticize him, you automatically are a far-right capitalist fascist. There’s no more middle ground, no more neutrality in Brazil anymore. And you can’t be right-wing and not like and support Bolsonaro, for example. And besides, everyone has a past, and everyone will judge his opinion based on the person’s curriculum. And I wouldn’t have the means to interview anyone meaningful.

  3. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

    i think Eduardo adds some good points, but on his own admission, is quite biased. For instance, according to the latest Datafolha survey mentioned, “whoever Lula supports”, with 27%, beats any candidate on the first round. It is early for pools, but it means something. Also, Lula not running is far from being a foregone conclusion. In fact it would indicate a very deliberate effort to make it happen (http://m.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/12/1947097-tribunal-julga-caso-de-lula-com-a-rapidez-de-acoes-mais-simples.shtml)

    1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

      Also, Geoffrey Robertson, Lula’s attorney in the UN case, should be a good quote in English.

      1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

        Great, will keep these points in mind, thanks. Why is Lula not running not a foregone conclusion?

        1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

          The law that bans a candidate to run after the first appeal is being re-evaluated by the Supreme Court [1]. Also, it is not automatic, the Electoral Tribunal evaluates and decides if it will ban the candidate IF someone asks [2]. Also, many have won injunctions, run and won the election (including a state congressman that works with a ankle bracelet [3]).

          [1] http://jcrs.uol.com.br/_conteudo/2018/01/politica/608661-stf-vai-revisar-posicao-sobre-prisao-em-2-instancia-diz-darcie.html
          [2] http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/01/1953735-candidatura-de-lula-e-considerada-possibilidade-remota-pelo-tse.shtml
          [3] https://g1.globo.com/rn/rio-grande-do-norte/noticia/constrangimento-diz-deputado-estadual-do-rn-sobre-usar-tornozeleira-eletronica.ghtml

          1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

            Interesting, I didn’t know the law was being re-evaluated. Will definitely take this into account. What are some of the most interesting angles to cover the election in your opinion?

          2. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

            @George: One of the points you expressed interest to explore: the impact of the Election for the future of Brazil, I actually think it impacts Latin America international presence more widely. In the last few years we’ve seen a swing to the right in many Latin American countries. Lula’s latest speech in Porto Alegre had a pan-latinamerican section (https://vimeo.com/252433948). I think he understands the leadership role he had in the region (see Oliver Stone’s doc South of the Border for more). Latin America has always been under USA’s sphere of influence, but with Trump’s more closed foreign policy approach, the door is open for more self-determination for countries in this part of the globe. Since Dilma’s impeachment, Brazil has become a secondary player in the BRICS, that could change if PT is back in government.

          3. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

            L Soares, would you like to write a few hundred words about the Ficha Limpa law; how it’s being reconsidered by the Supreme Court; and about how it’s not necessarily an automatic prison-sentence, and then add the result to the existing story?

  4. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

    Relevant questions, but maybe too many questions to address in a single story.

    I’d say you are right to assume that Lula is unlikely to be able to run for president.
    It’s a bit early to speculate about alternative scenarios without him in the ballot. If you are going to do it anyway, you might like to take a step back. Datafolha has been testing such scenarios in previous surveys.

    Check page 46 of Jun. 2017 survey report.
    http://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2017/06/1896223-lula-lidera-e-bolsonaro-disputa-com-marina-2-lugar-em-cenarios-para-2018.shtml
    and compare it to page 18 of the most recent, Jan 2018 report (the one you linked in this project).
    Bolsonaro position significantly improved.
    Other contenders stood stable.
    Blank voters slightly increased.
    Right now it looks like an important number of Lula’s voters are not ready to choose an alternative candidate, just as they were not ready in Jun. 2017.

    I believe the impact of Lula’s absence will be more clear in April, when more of his voters realize he will not be in the ballot. They will likely migrate to left leaning Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Jacques Wagner and Manuela D’Avila.
    Bolsonaro seemingly benefited from his polarization with Lula. Will he further improve or keep his position as Lula goes out of the picture?
    Center-right Geraldo Alckmin, Alvaro Dias, Luciano Hulk/João Dória, Collor de Mello, Paulo Rabello de Castro, João Amoêdo, Henrique Meirells get about 25% altogether. Will any of them be able to agregate most of these voters?

    Maybe more then voter’s preferences at the moment, you should pay attention to their high levels of rejection towards traditional politicians, including Lula. (Check Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas http://www.paranapesquisas.com.br.) Will that pave the way to outsiders like Huck and Amoêdo?

    As I said, it’s probably too early to speculate about these scenarios. I’d rather focus the “key facts central to the story”, as you put it.

    About that you might try to interview:
    Marcus André Melo, political science professor from Universidade Federal de Pernambuco
    https://www.facebook.com/marcus.a.melo
    José Álvaro Moisés, political science professor from Universidade de São Paulo
    https://www.facebook.com/jose.a.moises
    Miguel Reale Júnior, criminal law professor (retired) from Universidade de São Paulo
    [email protected]

    Full disclosure: I am affiliated to PSDB. The experts I suggested are not, as long as I know, but their views will probably be closer to mine.

    1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

      Eduardo, thank you so much for these fantastic suggestions and leads. I will be sure to follow up ASAP. We really want our community to engage as much as possible with our stories so please, feel free to add questions, remarks, or story ideas in EDIT as well. Obrigado!

      1. [ This comment is from a user you have muted ] (show)

        Hey Eduardo. Would you like to write a short candidate profile for each of the presidential hopefuls, and where they stand with the public atm, based on the Datafolha survey, and then add that to the current piece?

Subscribe to our newsletter

Be the first to collaborate on our developing articles

WikiTribune Open menu Close Search Like Back Next Open menu Close menu Play video RSS Feed Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Reddit Follow us on Instagram Follow us on Youtube Connect with us on Linkedin Connect with us on Discord Email us